Risk analysis modeling for infrastructure projects: Case study - water projects in Egypt


All infrastructure projects face many different types of construction problems. Water projects are classified as one of the infrastructure projects. Egypt as a developing country faces many risks in its construction industry especially for the infrastructure projects. Due to the overpopulation problems and the demand for development of new agriculture lands and the construction of new cities, new industrial zones, and drinking water projects, Egypt has been adopting many policies for developing and construction many water works. The Egyptian government gives water works more attention because the large investments are still being made in this industry every year. In addition these projects are considered one of the largest projects in Egypt. The water construction industry has been selected for this study because several water projects were executed in Egypt during the past decades and it is expected that these specialized construction projects will continue at higher rate during the next years.

Based on the results of a literature review, seventy-two risk variables were identified and grouped into fourteen risk factors. A questionnaire was designed and used with construction practitioners in the water projects in Egypt to assess the probabilities of occurrence and the impacts of the risk variables. The risk variables within the groups are ranked in terms of three indices, based on the probability of occurrence of the identified risk variables and their impacts on the total cost and total time of the projects.

The objectives of this research are centered on developing a model that is capable of solving a general representative problem for analysis and management risk factors affecting water projects. The developed model is constructed based on the identified high risk variables using the fuzzy logic system. In addition to the assessment and ranking for the risk variables, the proposed model can estimate the cost overrun and the delay of such projects. The model is applied to calculate the expected cost overrun and delay for four real water projects in Egypt.